The X-Factor Bears Need Help with on Schedule Release Day

The NFL schedule release date hasn't officially been announced but numerous reports have reported it for Thursday this week.

The opponents are known and based on those teams' 2023 winning percentage, the Bears face the third-easiest schedule.

It would be even more ideal for them if they can wade into this softer schedule instead of going face-first against the Lions, Packers or 49ers—the tougher teams they face.

The reason is rather obvious. It's the ultimate X-factor in the NFL.

It is called time on task.

In the old days of the NFL before free agency as it currently exists, teams didn't worry about this as much. They could keep cores together when they became successful. It's why the quality of play by the great teams in the 1980s and early 1990s might never again be realized. The 49ers dynasty, the Washington Redskins under Joe Gibbs, the 1985 Bears, Bill Parcells' New York Giants, then the start of the Cowboys dynasty under Jimmy Johnson were examples of teams together a while coming into their own knowing familiar defensive schemes and/or offenses and producing wins over extended periods. Sure the '85 Bears never repeated but the core of the team remained in the playoffs through 1991.

Teams had a stronger core of players who knew the offense and defense, they stayed together longer and the main changes occurred when coordinators or head coaches changed.

The time together is shorter now but teams can pull it together effectively faster.

The Bears, in 2022 through mid-2023 were an example of the opposite.

They completely overturned the roster and, finally, during the middle portion of 2023, they could claim to have a group of players who had been together long enough. Suddenly, a sadsack bunch of losers started to win. Sure, their schedule was softer then to an extent, but they couldn't have won even those games prior to that point.

The best gauge was their level of play against Detroit. They lost to the Lions 41-10 the previous year, then didn't play Detroit until after their defense had finally been assembled and put onto the field well into November. The difference was like night and day from their previous game against Detroit. They won once, should have won the other except for a late collapse, and held Detroit's vaunted passing game in check.

They did lose later to Green Bay, but the Packers reached their own epiphany a few weeks earlier. The Packers had been a 6-8 team and got on a roll to win their last three and kept rolling with a playoff win. The Bears defense did its job in the finale. The offense didn't.

Another factor in that season finale was incentive. It matters. Bettors will always tell you to look for the home team in December games, and in games between teams with incentive and those with none then take those with the incentive. The Bears had neither going for them. The home-field Packers had maximum total incentive in the finale. Their season would end with a Bears loss.

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Players knowing each other, knowing their roles, and getting the time on the field in games together in the ultimate team sport is necessary.

The Bears defense didn't even practice together until the start of preparation for the 2023 opener. New players DeMarcus Walker and Tremaine Edmunds missed much of the preseason and they were looking still at who would start at one cornerback until the start. Then they quickly lost Eddie Jackson and Kyler Gordon.

Toss into that the biggest change in their defense: Montez Sweat's arrival didn't come until midseason.

All of this said, the Bears need the softer part of the schedule early this time.

Even the Houston Texans last year required some time together. They lost their first two and were 3-4 after seven games before going on a tear.

it's together for the Bears now on one side of the ball but Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett are going to need time on task. Veterans require less but the rookie quarterback is a huge unknown.

They do have change on defense, with Kevin Byard at safety and with Justin Jones gone at defensive tackle. The rest of the group has been together and Jones' replacement, Gervon Dexter, has been in the system a year.

However, the offense is the challenge holding the Bears back this time. As explosive as it looks on paper with three top receivers, a running back with greater versatility and two tight ends for new QB Caleb Williams to target, none of this has even happened yet. Shane Waldron's offense is not only new to Williams, Allen, Odunze, Swift and Everett, it's new to everyone else.

Time on task has yet to occur.

The more time they can log together in games, in practices taking reps, the more cohesive the team. The offense won't have this when it starts.

The Bears are not going to be ready to step into 2024 and continue total momentum like they had when they were winning five out of seven games or when they were taking five straight home games.

The team with one of the easiest schedules could use one more break, and that would be starting the easy schedule in a softer spot until optimum time on task is acheived.